The Quarter-Million-Dollar Line Running Through Venice Home Prices
Suppose a Venice home sells for $5,400,000 and closes after June 30, 2026. The City of Los Angeles takes its usual 0.45% transfer tax. Now suppose the same home sells for one dollar more. The City adds a 4% Measure ULA tax on the entire price, and the seller owes about $216,000 more than at the lower number.
That jump creates a range of prices where the higher offer leaves the seller with less money. In Venice, the most expensive place to set a price is just above the line.
The Los Angeles Office of Finance publishes the schedule for closings after June 30, 2026. Up to $5,400,000, the rate is 0.45%. Above $5,400,000 and below $10,900,000, it is 4.45%. At $10,900,000 and up, it is 5.95%. The ULA part is a percentage of the full price. It is not a marginal bracket that taxes only the dollars above the line. The County adds its own documentary transfer tax of $1.10 per $1,000 on top of the City's.
The UCLA Lewis Center and RAND researchers assume the seller pays the tax. Under that assumption, and using the official rates, the numbers look like this:
| Contract price | Approximate City + County transfer tax | Approximate seller proceeds after transfer tax |
|---|---|---|
| $5,180,000 | $29,000 | $5,151,000 |
| $5,400,000 | $30,240 | $5,369,760 |
| $5,400,001 | $246,000 | $5,154,000 |
| $5,630,000 | $256,700 | $5,373,300 |
The table covers only transfer tax. It leaves out commissions, escrow, and everything else. A seller who accepts an offer just over the line takes home about what a $5,180,000 sale would net. To beat a sale at exactly $5,400,000, the price has to reach about $5,630,000. That leaves roughly $230,000 of contract prices where accepting the bigger number costs the seller money.
Buyers pay these prices too, so the effect reaches both sides. A home that would otherwise sell for $5,500,000 has two likely paths. It sells at or just under the line, or it needs a buyer willing to go well past it.
None of this is a guess about how people should behave. It shows up in the sales records.
In April 2025, the UCLA Lewis Center and RAND published a study of transactions from July 2020 through March 2025. At that time the threshold was $5 million. After ULA took effect, the authors found "a large spike immediately below $5 million." It was about three times the share of sales that had landed at that price before the tax. They found a second spike at $4.8 million, the price at which a seller nets about the same as selling just over $5 million and paying the tax. The authors call it "clear evidence that both parties understand they are better off transacting at prices that avoid the tax."
The same study looked at volume. In the first nine months after ULA, sales over $5 million in the City of Los Angeles fell about 65%, from roughly 80 a month to roughly 30. In the rest of Los Angeles County, the drop was about 36%. Below $4.5 million, the authors found no clear break at the date the tax started.
A July 2026 report from Pepperdine and Beacon Economics found the same pattern. It describes "visible clustering" just below the thresholds. It estimates that high-value transactions in the City ran about 41% below what surrounding areas would predict, with no statistically significant effect below the threshold. In its preferred single-family models, City homes priced at $5 million and up sold for about 11% to 12% less than comparable homes in nearby jurisdictions. The Greater Los Angeles Association of Realtors and the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation supported the report. The authors say their analysis and conclusions were independent. They also say their count of "foregone" sales can include deals that were repriced, delayed, moved elsewhere, or canceled, and their data can't tell those apart.
Venice matters in these numbers. Crosstown reviewed City ULA data and counted 593 taxed sales from May 2023 to August 2024. Council District 11, which includes Venice, had 149 of them, more than any other district in the City. No published source breaks those sales out for Venice alone. Even so, the Westside district that includes Venice paid the tax more often than any other.
Venice borders three other transfer-tax systems. Each one handles a $5.5 million sale differently.
Culver City has no sudden jump because its brackets are marginal. Santa Monica has one, but it is $2.6 million higher than Venice's. Santa Monica's tiers are fixed dollar amounts with no inflation adjustment in the City's published schedule. Venice's line moves every year.
The mailing address doesn't tell you which tax applies. The Marina Peninsula sits between Venice Beach and the harbor channel, bounded by Thirtieth Place, Via Marina, Strongs Drive, Canal Court, Pacific Avenue, and the ocean. The City's Venice Coastal Zone plan puts it inside the City of Los Angeles. A home there may have "Marina del Rey" in its address and still owe ULA. The unincorporated, County-run Marina del Rey around the harbor is a separate jurisdiction. Los Angeles County warns that mailing addresses can name a neighboring city and offers an address lookup tool. Run that lookup before you count on a tax number.
ULA's thresholds adjust each year based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chained Consumer Price Index. The County Recorder's schedule shows the history. The line was $5,300,000 for closings from July 1, 2025, and is $5,400,000 from July 1, 2026. Some coverage from July 2026 still quoted the old $5.3 million figure. The Finance Department's current number is the one that applies.
Timing matters here. A pending sale near the line that closes after the next adjustment could fall on the other side of it. A price a seller set last spring may now sit in a different place relative to the threshold. The tax follows the closing date, so the closing schedule becomes part of pricing.
Less than many owners expect. The statewide initiative to repeal ULA and similar local transfer taxes was withdrawn from the November 2026 ballot after a deal in Sacramento. Proposition 43 replaced it on the November 3, 2026 ballot. It would require a two-thirds vote for voter-initiated local special taxes approved after January 1, 2027. It would not repeal ULA.
The City ballot includes Proposition TE. It would exempt a one-time sale of certain homes damaged or destroyed in the Palisades Fire, made by the person who owned the home at the time of the fire, between January 7, 2025 and January 6, 2030. It does not apply to ordinary Venice sales. On July 1, 2026, the City Council voted 14-0 to shelve a proposed 10-year exemption for new apartment buildings. The courts have also upheld the tax. On December 15, 2025, the California Court of Appeal affirmed dismissal of the state challenge and held that voters could adopt ULA by initiative.
For the next Venice sale near $5.4 million, then, the line is still in force and will move again on July 1.
Does ULA apply to Venice duplexes and small apartment buildings? Yes. The tax applies to documents conveying real property anywhere in the City of Los Angeles, not just single-family homes. The UCLA-RAND study estimated that ULA cut sales of multifamily parcels with high redevelopment potential by about 50%.
Is there current Venice sales data showing prices bunched under $5.4 million? Not in published form. The bunching findings come from citywide research. Recent Venice-only counts haven't been published by the sources reviewed here.
Is this tax advice? No. This is general information based on published schedules. Who pays the tax, how liens affect the calculation, and whether any exemption applies all depend on the specific transaction, so confirm with a tax professional and your escrow officer.
If you own in Venice and your home's likely value is anywhere near the ULA line, figure out where your price lands relative to the threshold, and which side of July 1 you'll close on, before you set the list price. Terry Ballentine can run that math against recent sales on your street. Start with a free home valuation.
With more than 50 years in Westside real estate, Terry Ballentine offers unmatched expertise in Marina del Rey, Venice, and nearby coastal communities. He provides personalized guidance for buyers, sellers, and investors, earning long-term trust and repeat clients. Terry’s hands-on approach and deep local knowledge ensure every transaction is handled with care and precision.
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